Monday, January 08, 2007

Big Oil money has corrupted mathematics itself!

The Union of Concerned Scientists claims that ExxonMobil money is the only reason that there is any skepticism at all about catastrophic AGW. Here are some highlights from their "report" :

Smoke, Mirrors & Hot Air: How ExxonMobil Uses Big Tobacco's Tactics to "Manufacture Uncertainty" on Climate Change details how the oil company, like the tobacco industry in previous decades, has

  • raised doubts about even the most indisputable scientific evidence (there's NO SUCH THING - ed.)
  • funded an array of front organizations to create the appearance of a broad platform for a tight-knit group of vocal climate change contrarians who misrepresent peer-reviewed scientific findings (where's MY money?)
  • attempted to portray its opposition to action as a positive quest for "sound science" rather than business self-interest (what sort of action are we talking about here? I would think an oil company would APPROVE of Al Gore flying all over the place to talk about global warming!)
  • used its access to the Bush administration to block federal policies and shape government communications on global warming (we have a policy on this?)
Etc., etc. Let's look at this organization of the seriously concerned a little more closely, shall we? They list some people with impressive credentials on their board, but the people who actually run the organization, the "experts" according to the website, are ALL policy types with not one degree in a hard science among them. Their organization's financial support comes from unspecified foundations and contributions. More on their activities in other areas can be found here. Though they attempt to cloak themselves in an aura of scientific integrity and impartiality, a cursory reading through their website reveals a depressingly slavish devotion to leftist causes, not science. It's also interesting that absolutely anybody can become a member. You don't have to be a scientist or even concerned, for that matter. Send them $25 and you or your canary or your intestinal bacteria can become members. If you want to be a member of the Stewardship Circle or the Henry Kendall Society, you'll have to cough up a lot more cash, but just think of the influence you'll have on public policy!

So what does this have to do with mathematics? Paul Linsay over at Climate Audit has done the hard statistical work and shown that Atlantic basin hurricane counts from 1945 to 2006 fit a Poisson distribution amazingly well. So, you ask, what? It means that there are no apparent trends in the data, such as increasing numbers due to global warming (as this blog pointed out in April last year) which is what Judith Curry et al. claimed was the case in a widely publicized paper
(well, widely publicized in the atmospheric science community). This alleged increase was recently published again with a slightly different analysis by Holland and Webster. And, it should be to no one's surprise, the Union of Concerned Scientists says the same thing. But the Poisson distribution indicates that the number of hurricanes from year to year is random. There is NO TREND indicating that rising global temperatures are increasing the number of Atlantic hurricanes. So we can see that mathematics and statistics themselves have been corrupted by ExxonMobil money. How else can one explain this deviation from what all right-thinking people KNOW to be the truth, this refusal to conform to the doctrines of the Church of the Holy AGW?

Note to ExxonMobil - I'll email you my PayPal account information.

No comments: