I'm sure this is all Bush's fault somehow

From the Harvard School of Public Health via EurekAlert!

One third in high-risk hurricane areas say they may ignore evacuation order

Boston, MA -- According to a new survey of high-risk hurricane areas in eight states--Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi, North Carolina, South Carolina and Texas--conducted by the Harvard School of Public Health Project on the Public and Biological Security, one-third (33%) of residents said if government officials said they had to evacuate due to a major hurricane this season, they would not or are unsure if they would leave. Homeowners (39%), whites (41%) and long-term residents (45%) are the groups most likely to ride out a major hurricane. People with children under 18 are less likely to remain in their homes (26%). Mobile home owners are no more likely to evacuate than the general public.

The top reasons people give for not evacuating involve concerns about safety and security. More than two-thirds (68%) say their home is well-built and they would be safe there. Just over half (54%) feel that roads would be too crowded, and one in three (36%) feels that evacuating would be dangerous. Close to one-third (31%) worry that their possessions would be stolen or damaged.

"It will be a challenge for public officials to convince many of these people to leave their homes because they view their homes as safe and evacuating as dangerous," said Robert J. Blendon, Professor of Health Policy and Political Analysis at the Harvard School of Public Health. "In addition, most of those who plan on staying believe they would be rescued if they needed to be."

So basically, even after Katrina they still think their personal safety should be someone else's responsibility. But wait, it gets even worse:

Many residents of hurricane-prone areas have not made critical preparations for a major storm. Hurricane Katrina showed that families can get separated and communication can break down in the aftermath of a major storm, but most residents have not prepared for that possibility. Nearly two in three (63%) have not agreed on a meeting place if their family is separated, and one in two (49%) have not agreed on a phone number outside the region that family members could call. Of those who have a household member with a chronic illness or disability requiring help to evacuate, 40% do not have that help lined up.

Forty percent do not have $300 in cash ready to take with them if they need to evacuate. Nearly one in three (29%) do not have enough drinking water for each family member for three days if they are unable to leave. Of those taking prescription drugs, 37% do not have a three-week supply in case of an emergency. Nearly one in four (23%) do not have a first-aid kit in the house.

Read the whole thing.

OK, I can see why some people might be reluctant to evacuate - there's the expense of a hotel room for an indefinite period, the high probability of looters cleaning out your house, the possibility that things might not turn out to be as bad as the NWS predicts. But they KNOW they live in a hurricane prone area, so one would think they had enough sense to make some kind of plan, especially after last year's hurricanes. But I'm sure that at some point in the next few months we will be treated to non-stop, 24 hour video of people sitting on the roofs of their houses whining because the government didn't come and get them immediately after the storm, making tearful pleas for help finding their family members, etc., and trying to make the rest of us feel guilty because they didn't plan ahead. Am I being harsh? Certainly, but not as harsh as Nature can be to the unprepared. One question that the survey didn't ask these people but I would love to know the answer to is "What the hell are you thinking?" Especially since they should also know this :

From Dr. William Gray's Extended range forecast of Atlantic seasonal hurricane activity :

Most Southeast coastal residents probably do not know how fortunate they had been in the prior 38-year period (1966-2003) leading up to 2004-2005 when there were only 17 major hurricanes (0.45/year) that crossed the U.S. coastline. In the prior 40-year period of 1926-1965, there were 36 major hurricanes (0.90/year or twice as many) that made U.S. landfall. It is understandable that coastal residents were not prepared for the great upsurge in landfalling major hurricanes in 2004-2005. For many years, we had been warning that the southeastern United States should expect great increases in hurricane-spawned destruction in future years.

Enough said?